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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Puebla — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Puebla
Puebla
F. Mora 14'
A. Mendoza 6'
A. Mendoza 80' (OG)
L. Cavallini 58'
9/30/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas50%
×Draw25%
Puebla25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Puebla
1.07

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 51% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 142 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Puebla
1.05

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Puebla
1.65

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Puebla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Puebla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
75%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Puebla
75%
Draw or Puebla
50%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
26%
Puebla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
80%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
48%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
22%
Puebla 1+ goals
66%
Puebla 2+ goals
29%
Puebla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
67%
Puebla (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Puebla away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.65 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Puebla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.62

Puebla attack 1.05 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
50%
level
25%
Puebla scores more
25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34
N. VikonisPueblaPuebla · G
7.6

Match Events

6'
A. Mendoza↳ I. Malcorra
13'
Lucas Cavallini
14'
F. Mora
17'
Daniel Arreola
27'
Christian Tabó
43'
Luis Quintana
46'
F. Acuña← P. González
46'
J. Torres← I. Pallas
58'
L. Cavallini
68'
J. Iturbe← M. Rodríguez
68'
C. Palacios← J. Espericueta
70'
B. Figueroa← F. Mora
80'
A. MendozaOwn goal
84'
M. Alustiza← A. Mendoza

Possession

45%U.N.A.M.

Shots

16U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

50%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Puebla
Overview
45%Possession55%
16Total Shots10
9Corners4
15Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots10
8On Target3
6Off Target6
2Blocked1
9Inside Box5
7Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
310Total Passes389
254Accurate Passes317
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Puebla

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Puebla drew 2-2 in Liga MX on September 30, 2018.

Goals: A. Mendoza (6', 80' o.g.), F. Mora (14'), L. Cavallini (58').

Puebla controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Universitario in Mexico City.