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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs New England Revolution — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumasadvanced
Pens
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
New England Revolution
New England Revolution
J. Dinenno 120+10' (pen), 49', 33'
N. Freire 120+8' (pen)
A. Mozo 120+4' (pen)
A. Ortíz 120+2' (pen)
S. Saucedo 59'
J. Altidore 120+9' (pen)
D. Jones 120+3' (pen)
Carles Gil 120+1' (pen)
3/17/2022CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Quarter-finalsEstadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas60%
×Draw21%
New England Revolution19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2.07
New England Revolution
1.09

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 90% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2.14
New England Revolution
1.33

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0.86
New England Revolution
2.00

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
New England Revolution+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

New England Revolution →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
81%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or New England Revolution
79%
Draw or New England Revolution
40%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
36%
New England Revolution wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
87%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
61%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
34%
New England Revolution 1+ goals
66%
New England Revolution 2+ goals
30%
New England Revolution 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
75%
New England Revolution (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

New England Revolution away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 2.14 + New England Revolution defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.07

New England Revolution attack 1.33 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
60%
level
21%
New England Revolution scores more
19%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. DinennoU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
9.0

Match Events

16'
Arnór Traustason
33'
J. Dinenno↳ Rogério
46'
T. McNamara← A. Traustason
49'
J. Dinenno↳ Rogério
59'
S. Saucedo
62'
Diogo← O. Islas
68'
J. Ruvalcaba← S. Saucedo
71'
J. Altidore← G. Bou
72'
Jozy Altidore
74'
W. Corozo← Rogério
120+1'
Carles GilPenalty
120+2'
A. OrtízPenalty
120+3'
D. JonesPenalty
120+4'
A. MozoPenalty
120+5'
T. McNamaraMissed penalty
120+6'
E. VelardeMissed penalty
120+7'
S. LletgetMissed penalty
120+8'
N. FreirePenalty
120+9'
J. AltidorePenalty
120+10'
J. DinennoPenalty

Possession

62%U.N.A.M.

Shots

25U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

56%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.New
Overview
62%Possession38%
25Total Shots7
10Corners6
10Fouls9
Shots
25Total Shots7
11On Target3
6Off Target4
8Blocked0
16Inside Box5
9Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
433Total Passes276
362Accurate Passes186
84%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
3Saves8
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3 – 0 New England Revolution

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat New England Revolution 3-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on March 17, 2022.

Goals: J. Dinenno (33', 49', 120+10' pen), S. Saucedo (59'), Carles Gil (120+1' pen), A. Ortíz (120+2' pen), D. Jones (120+3' pen), A. Mozo (120+4' pen), N. Freire (120+8' pen), J. Altidore (120+9' pen).

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (62%) and registered 25 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..