Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Necaxa
Necaxa
J. Dinenno 74'
D. Cabrera 16'
9/27/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas48%
×Draw24%
Necaxa27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.65
Necaxa
1.18

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 40% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 139 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Necaxa
1.27

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Necaxa
1.71

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Necaxa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
73%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Necaxa
76%
Draw or Necaxa
52%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
25%
Necaxa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
81%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
49%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
23%
Necaxa 1+ goals
69%
Necaxa 2+ goals
33%
Necaxa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
64%
Necaxa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Necaxa attack 1.27 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
48%
level
24%
Necaxa scores more
27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
D. CabreraNecaxaNecaxa · M
7.6

Match Events

9'
Fernando Arce Jr.
13'
Favio Álvarez
16'
D. Cabrera
46'
R. Sandoval← F. Arce
58'
Alan Mozo
59'
J. Vigón← A. Mozo
60'
Raul Sandoval
67'
F. Waller← J. Iturbe
71'
Nicolás Freire
74'
J. Dinenno↳ J. Vigón
80'
Jair Pereira
80'
J. Delgado← A. Zendejas
81'
L. Passerini← M. Barragán
84'
Unai Bilbao

Possession

43%U.N.A.M.

Shots

15U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

48%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Necaxa
Overview
43%Possession57%
15Total Shots10
9Corners3
12Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots10
6On Target2
4Off Target5
5Blocked3
9Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
231Total Passes325
165Accurate Passes253
71%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Necaxa drew 1-1 in Liga MX on September 27, 2020.

Goals: D. Cabrera (16'), J. Dinenno (74').

Necaxa controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..