Necaxa 0–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Necaxa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

3/7/2026

Liga MX · Clausura - 10Estadio Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Necaxa43%

×Draw26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NecaxaExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.21

Necaxa

1.45

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

Necaxa creates 20% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 151 away

1.36

creates per match

1.13

1.29

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Necaxa

1.36

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.13

allows per match

Necaxa

1.29

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Necaxa+0.00on par

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Necaxa ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Necaxa or draw

68%

Necaxa or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

74%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

57%

Winning margin

Necaxa wins by 2+

21%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Necaxa 1+ goals

77%

Necaxa 2+ goals

42%

Necaxa 3+ goals

18%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

34%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Necaxa (draw refunded)

57%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Necaxa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 138 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Necaxa attack 1.36 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.45

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Necaxa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Necaxa scores more

43%

level

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

32%

Necaxa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Necaxa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff