U.N.A.M. - Pumas 5–3 Necaxa: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

5 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Necaxa

C. González 81', 54'

A. Mozo 76'

M. Rodríguez 67'

A. Mendoza 24'

V. Dávila 78', 13'

M. Fernández 53'

7/29/2018

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas48%

×Draw24%

Necaxa27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchNecaxa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.18

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.65

Necaxa

1.18

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 40% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 139 away

1.59

creates per match

1.27

1.09

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.59

Necaxa

1.27

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.09

Necaxa

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Necaxa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Necaxa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

73%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Necaxa

76%

Draw or Necaxa

52%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

25%

Necaxa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

81%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

49%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

23%

Necaxa 1+ goals

69%

Necaxa 2+ goals

33%

Necaxa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

64%

Necaxa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Necaxa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.71 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Necaxa defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.65

Necaxa attack 1.27 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

48%

level

24%

Necaxa scores more

27%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

V. Dávila

Necaxa · M

8.5

Match Events

13'

V. Dávila↳ B. Fernández

24'

A. Mendoza↳ Alejandro Arribas

49'

R. Cota← L. Quintana

53'

M. Fernández

54'

C. González

63'

D. Álvarez← M. Allende

64'

Alan Mozo

67'

M. Rodríguez↳ F. Mora

69'

M. Alustiza← F. Mora

73'

Brayan Beckeles

76'

A. Mozo↳ P. Barrera

77'

F. Castro← B. Beckeles

77'

M. Barragán← L. Pérez

78'

V. Dávila↳ F. Castro

79'

M. Díaz← M. Rodríguez

80'

Victor Malcorra

81'

C. González↳ I. Malcorra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Necaxa

Overview

39%Possession61%

19Total Shots19

8Corners6

10Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots19

7On Target5

7Off Target10

5Blocked4

12Inside Box9

7Outside Box10

Passing

39%Possession61%

272Total Passes432

201Accurate Passes360

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1