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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Leon
Leon
7/7/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 1Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas46%
×Draw25%
Leon29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54
Leon
1.18

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 31% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 145 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Leon
1.26

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Leon
1.48

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Leon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Leon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
71%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Leon
75%
Draw or Leon
54%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
23%
Leon wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
79%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
45%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
20%
Leon 1+ goals
69%
Leon 2+ goals
33%
Leon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
61%
Leon (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Leon away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.48 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Leon defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.54

Leon attack 1.26 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
46%
level
25%
Leon scores more
29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Leon

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Leon 4-1 in Liga MX on July 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in D.F..