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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Guadalajara Chivas — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
CANC
00:00
Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
5/3/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 16Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas38%
×Draw25%
Guadalajara Chivas37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.47
Guadalajara Chivas
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Guadalajara Chivas
1.51

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Guadalajara Chivas
1.31

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Guadalajara Chivas+0.16scores more

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Guadalajara Chivas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
63%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Guadalajara Chivas
75%
Draw or Guadalajara Chivas
62%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
18%
Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
77%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
43%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
18%
Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
76%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
42%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
51%
Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Guadalajara Chivas away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.31 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.51 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
38%
level
25%
Guadalajara Chivas scores more
37%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Guadalajara Chivas — Match Preview

U.N.A.M. - Pumas face Guadalajara Chivas on May 3, 2020 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Guadalajara Chivas at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.