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Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

Guadalajara Chivas
Guadalajara Chivas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
4/6/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 13Estadio Akron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Guadalajara Chivas46%
×Draw26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guadalajara Chivas
1.48
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.08

Guadalajara Chivas creates 37% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 151 away

creates per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.42
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

Guadalajara Chivas
1.04
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

Guadalajara Chivas+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guadalajara Chivas ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guadalajara Chivas or draw
72%
Guadalajara Chivas or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
74%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
54%

Winning margin

Guadalajara Chivas wins by 2+
23%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Guadalajara Chivas 1+ goals
77%
Guadalajara Chivas 2+ goals
43%
Guadalajara Chivas 3+ goals
19%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
66%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
29%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Guadalajara Chivas (draw refunded)
63%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guadalajara Chivas at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.04 · 147 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guadalajara Chivas attack 1.42 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + Guadalajara Chivas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Guadalajara Chivas scores more
46%
level
26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
28%

Guadalajara Chivas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Guadalajara Chivas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Guadalajara Chivas and U.N.A.M. - Pumas drew 2-2 in Liga MX on April 6, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Akron in Zapopan.