U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–0 FC Juarez: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Juarez

W. Corozo 90+5'

10/17/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 13Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas53%

×Draw24%

FC Juarez23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchFC Juarez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.02

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.68

FC Juarez

1.02

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 65% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 119 away

1.59

creates per match

0.94

1.09

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.59

FC Juarez

0.94

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.09

FC Juarez

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

FC Juarez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

77%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or FC Juarez

76%

Draw or FC Juarez

47%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

29%

FC Juarez wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

81%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

50%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

24%

FC Juarez 1+ goals

64%

FC Juarez 2+ goals

27%

FC Juarez 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

70%

FC Juarez (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.77 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + FC Juarez defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Juarez attack 0.94 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

53%

level

24%

FC Juarez scores more

23%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

A. Ortíz

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · D

7.5

Match Events

2'

Alan Mozo

43'

Sebastian SaucedoGoal confirmed

46'

Diogo← Rogério

53'

F. Castillo← J. Esquivel

53'

A. Mora← A. Acosta

66'

S. Saucedo← A. Álvarez

68'

F. Rodríguez← H. González

79'

C. Battocchio← Higor

79'

W. Corozo← F. Álvarez

83'

84'

90+1'

90+4'

90+5'

W. Corozo↳ C. Battocchio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.FC

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots6

4Corners3

12Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots6

4On Target2

9Off Target3

2Blocked1

6Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

412Total Passes397

352Accurate Passes328

85%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3