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FC Juarez vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — Liga MX 2026

FC Juarez
FC Juarez
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
7/18/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

FC Juarez40%
×Draw26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Juarez
1.40
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.26

FC Juarez creates 11% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 151 away

creates per match

FC Juarez
1.26
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.13

allows per match

FC Juarez
1.39
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54

finishing

FC Juarez+0.00on par
U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Juarez ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Juarez or draw
66%
FC Juarez or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
74%
Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas
60%

Winning margin

FC Juarez wins by 2+
19%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Juarez 1+ goals
75%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
41%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
17%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
72%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
36%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Juarez (draw refunded)
54%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Juarez at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.54 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Juarez attack 1.26 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.40

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.13 + FC Juarez defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Juarez scores more
40%
level
26%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
34%

FC Juarez at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Juarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: FC Juarez 1–2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat FC Juarez 2-1 in Liga MX on July 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez in Ciudad Juárez.