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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs FC Juarez — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Juarez
FC Juarez
C. González 54' (pen)
M. Olivera 65'
8/9/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas53%
×Draw24%
FC Juarez23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.69
FC Juarez
1.02

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 66% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 118 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
FC Juarez
0.95

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
FC Juarez
1.78

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
FC Juarez+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

FC Juarez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
77%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or FC Juarez
76%
Draw or FC Juarez
47%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
29%
FC Juarez wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
82%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
50%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
24%
FC Juarez 1+ goals
64%
FC Juarez 2+ goals
27%
FC Juarez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
70%
FC Juarez (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

FC Juarez away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + FC Juarez defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Juarez attack 0.95 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
53%
level
24%
FC Juarez scores more
23%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
M. OliveraFC JuarezFC Juarez · D
7.7

Match Events

8'
Erick Castillo
40'
Francisco Javier Nevarez
46'
J. Iturbe← J. Rivas
54'
C. GonzálezPenalty
65'
M. Olivera
66'
S. Saucedo← F. Álvarez
69'
D. Lezcano← B. Rubio
73'
Juan Iturbe
76'
Amaury García← J. Vásquez
87'
L. Hernández← F. Santos
90'
Juan Dinenno

Possession

68%U.N.A.M.

Shots

23U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

57%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.FC
Overview
68%Possession32%
23Total Shots6
11Corners3
17Fouls11
Shots
23Total Shots6
3On Target2
14Off Target3
6Blocked1
12Inside Box5
11Outside Box1
Passing
68%Possession32%
411Total Passes193
365Accurate Passes128
89%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards2
1Offsides3

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–1 FC Juarez

U.N.A.M. - Pumas and FC Juarez drew 1-1 in Liga MX on August 9, 2020.

Goals: C. González (54' pen), M. Olivera (65').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (68%) and registered 23 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..