U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–0 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Tijuana

I. Pussetto 88'

9/22/2024

Liga MX · Apertura - 9Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas53%

×Draw23%

Club Tijuana24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.17

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.84

Club Tijuana

1.17

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 57% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.29

creates per match

0.88

1.46

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.29

Club Tijuana

0.88

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.46

Club Tijuana

2.40

+0.71scores more than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.71scores more

Club Tijuana+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

76%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club Tijuana

77%

Draw or Club Tijuana

47%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

30%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

84%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

55%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

28%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

69%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

33%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

69%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.40 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.29 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.84

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

53%

level

23%

Club Tijuana scores more

24%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

José Corona

Club Tijuana · G

9.0

Match Events

45+2'

58'

58'

59'

63'

A. Ávila← R. Funes Mori

64'

I. Tona← C. Rivera

72'

R. López← Á. Rico

76'

J. Álvarez← D. Blanco

76'

Unai Bilbao← E. Reynoso

84'

Nicolás Díaz

85'

I. Pussetto← P. Quispe

88'

I. Pussetto↳ R. López

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Club

Overview

41%Possession59%

20Total Shots5

5Corners2

7Fouls15

Shots

20Total Shots5

11On Target2

6Off Target2

3Blocked1

15Inside Box2

5Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

349Total Passes518

283Accurate Passes426

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

7Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1