U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3–1 Club Tijuana: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Tijuana

F. Álvarez 56'

J. Dinenno 47'

A. Ortíz 45'

V. Loroña 65'

10/24/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas57%

×Draw21%

Club Tijuana21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchClub Tijuana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

2.01

Club Tijuana

1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.62

creates per match

0.90

1.37

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Club Tijuana

0.90

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Club Tijuana

2.40

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Club Tijuana+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club Tijuana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

79%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club Tijuana

79%

Draw or Club Tijuana

43%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

34%

Club Tijuana wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

87%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

59%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

32%

Club Tijuana 1+ goals

68%

Club Tijuana 2+ goals

32%

Club Tijuana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

73%

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Club Tijuana attack 0.90 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

57%

level

21%

Club Tijuana scores more

21%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Dinenno

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · F

8.5

Match Events

18'

Higor Meritão

31'

Christian Rivera

34'

Leonel López

39'

Higor MeritãoPenalty confirmed

45'

A. Ortíz↳ E. Lira

47'

J. Dinenno

56'

F. Álvarez↳ J. Dinenno

57'

M. García← Higor

57'

A. Álvarez← S. Saucedo

60'

M. Ruiz← C. Rivera

60'

F. Martínez← C. Ortiz

65'

Amaury García← L. López

65'

V. Loroña

67'

E. Ayon← E. Castillo

80'

M. Sansores← L. Rodríguez

83'

Diogo← J. Dinenno

83'

C. Battocchio← F. Álvarez

84'

Alan Mozo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Club

Overview

49%Possession51%

16Total Shots12

7Corners4

16Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots12

3On Target5

11Off Target5

2Blocked2

11Inside Box4

5Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

344Total Passes376

281Accurate Passes302

82%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1