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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
B. Mendoza 90+6'
M. Mayorga 57'
C. González 38'
8/30/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas57%
×Draw21%
Club Tijuana21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2.01
Club Tijuana
1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Club Tijuana
0.90

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Club Tijuana
2.40

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Club Tijuana+0.10scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
79%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club Tijuana
79%
Draw or Club Tijuana
43%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
34%
Club Tijuana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
87%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
59%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
32%
Club Tijuana 1+ goals
68%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
32%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
73%
Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Club Tijuana attack 0.90 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
57%
level
21%
Club Tijuana scores more
21%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. TalaveraU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · G
8.2

Match Events

10'
Juan Dinenno
31'
Miguel Barbieri
38'
C. González↳ J. Vásquez
45'
Juan Iturbe
46'
E. López← C. Aboagye
52'
Carlos Gutiérrez
52'
Jonathan Orozco
57'
M. Mayorga↳ C. Gutiérrez
59'
J. Gómez← A. Cruz
59'
L. Gamíz← M. Ruiz
60'
F. Waller← C. González
73'
L. López← C. Gutiérrez
76'
J. Rezabala← C. Rivera
79'
Alfredo Talavera
80'
J. Cortizo← V. Guzmán
85'
Jaime Gomez
87'
B. Mendoza← F. Álvarez
87'
B. Figueroa← J. Iturbe
90'
Johan Vásquez
90+6'
B. Mendoza

Possession

46%U.N.A.M.

Shots

18U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

48%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Club
Overview
46%Possession54%
18Total Shots7
6Corners2
15Fouls16
Shots
18Total Shots7
6On Target4
8Off Target1
4Blocked2
10Inside Box4
8Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
263Total Passes320
185Accurate Passes240
70%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls16
5Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Tijuana

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Club Tijuana 3-0 in Liga MX on August 30, 2020.

Goals: C. González (38'), M. Mayorga (57'), B. Mendoza (90+6').

Club Tijuana controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..