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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
CANC
00:00
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
3/22/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas57%
×Draw21%
Club Tijuana21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2.01
Club Tijuana
1.14

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 76% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Club Tijuana
0.90

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Club Tijuana
2.40

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Club Tijuana+0.10scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
79%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club Tijuana
79%
Draw or Club Tijuana
43%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
34%
Club Tijuana wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
87%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
59%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
32%
Club Tijuana 1+ goals
68%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
32%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
73%
Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Club Tijuana defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Club Tijuana attack 0.90 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
57%
level
21%
Club Tijuana scores more
21%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U.N.A.M. - Pumas face Club Tijuana (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with U.N.A.M. - Pumas hosting Club Tijuana. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Club Tijuana at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.