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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Preview
18:00
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
8/16/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4
Big match
53%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
model favours
53%24%23%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas53%
×Draw24%
Club Queretaro23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.68
Club Queretaro
1.00

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 68% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 137 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Club Queretaro
0.91

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Club Queretaro
1.77

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club Queretaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
77%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club Queretaro
76%
Draw or Club Queretaro
47%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
29%
Club Queretaro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
81%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
50%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
24%
Club Queretaro 1+ goals
63%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
26%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
70%
Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
53%
level
24%
Club Queretaro scores more
23%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 1, Club Queretaro 11 in the table
  • Club Queretaro fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Balanced
Club Queretaro
Direct / counter-attacking
51%PossessionBiggest gap35%
82%Pass accuracy72%
12.4Shots9.5
1.42xG1.37
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
U.N.A.M. - PumasClub Queretaro

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3
Draws
2
Club Queretaro
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%
1–12–02–32–01–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Pumas
LLWLD
Queretaro
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U.N.A.M. - Pumas face Club Queretaro (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with U.N.A.M. - Pumas hosting Club Queretaro. Match starts August 16, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.