Club Queretaro 1–1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

4/27/2024

Liga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Club Queretaro37%

×Draw24%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchU.N.A.M. - Pumas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.56

Club Queretaro

1.50

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.76

creates per match

1.29

1.82

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.76

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.29

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.82

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.24

-0.76scores less than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Club Queretaro-0.76scores less

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

U.N.A.M. - Pumas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

61%

Club Queretaro or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

76%

Draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas

63%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

17%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

78%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

44%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

19%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

79%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

46%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

48%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.82 · 5 matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.76 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.29 + Club Queretaro defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

37%

level

24%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

39%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff