U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–0 Club Queretaro: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Queretaro

8/14/2021

Liga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas45%

×Draw25%

Club Queretaro30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchClub Queretaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.22

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.54

Club Queretaro

1.22

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.62

creates per match

1.06

1.37

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Club Queretaro

1.06

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Club Queretaro

1.46

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Club Queretaro-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club Queretaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club Queretaro

75%

Draw or Club Queretaro

55%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

22%

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

79%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

45%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

20%

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

70%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

34%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

60%

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Club Queretaro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Club Queretaro attack 1.06 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

45%

level

25%

Club Queretaro scores more

30%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Freire

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · D

7.9

Match Events

33'

José Galindo

39'

Nicolás Freire

64'

Higor← E. Montejano

64'

Ángel García← W. Corozo

65'

P. Gómez← R. Torres

65'

K. Balanta← D. Cabrera

69'

Higor Meritão

72'

G. Madrigal← N. Sosa

72'

R. González← O. Martínez

73'

Alexis Doldán

76'

F. Álvarez← S. Saucedo

76'

M. García← C. Battocchio

80'

J. Ramírez← K. Ramírez

82'

G. Torres← J. Dinenno

89'

Favio Álvarez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Club

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots11

2Corners6

12Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots11

3On Target3

9Off Target5

4Blocked3

6Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

280Total Passes406

197Accurate Passes316

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2