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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
CANC
00:00
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
5/10/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 17Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas45%
×Draw25%
Club Queretaro30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54
Club Queretaro
1.22

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Club Queretaro
1.06

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Club Queretaro
1.46

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Club Queretaro-0.66scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club Queretaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
70%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club Queretaro
75%
Draw or Club Queretaro
55%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
22%
Club Queretaro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
79%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
45%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
20%
Club Queretaro 1+ goals
70%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
34%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
60%
Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Club Queretaro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Club Queretaro attack 1.06 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
45%
level
25%
Club Queretaro scores more
30%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U.N.A.M. - Pumas face Club Queretaro (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with U.N.A.M. - Pumas hosting Club Queretaro. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Club Queretaro at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.