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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
M. Ruiz 14'
8/22/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 6Estadio Olimpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas45%
×Draw25%
Club Queretaro30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.54
Club Queretaro
1.22

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Club Queretaro
1.06

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Club Queretaro
1.46

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Club Queretaro-0.66scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club Queretaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
70%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club Queretaro
75%
Draw or Club Queretaro
55%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
22%
Club Queretaro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
79%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
45%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
20%
Club Queretaro 1+ goals
70%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
34%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
60%
Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Club Queretaro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Club Queretaro attack 1.06 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
45%
level
25%
Club Queretaro scores more
30%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. SaldívarU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · G
8.0

Match Events

14'
M. Ruiz↳ Camilo Sanvezzo
37'
Miguel Samudio
58'
Marcel Ruíz
62'
J. Iturbe← M. Alustiza
71'
Victor Malcorra
71'
E. Trejo← M. Ruiz
74'
A. Hernández← F. Mora
77'
Alan Mendoza
77'
P. Yrizar← D. Villalba
80'
A. Acosta← P. Barrera
83'
Alfredo Saldívar
85'
G. Acosta← Camilo Sanvezzo

Possession

52%U.N.A.M.

Shots

19U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

52%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Club
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots12
0Corners3
11Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots12
4On Target6
9Off Target2
6Blocked4
7Inside Box10
12Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
358Total Passes337
289Accurate Passes254
81%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls14
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–1 Club Queretaro

Club Queretaro beat U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-0 in Liga MX on August 22, 2018.

Goals: M. Ruiz (14').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico Universitario in Mexico City.