Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

U. Madeira vs Lusitânia — Taça de Portugal 2018

U. Madeira
U. Madeira
FT
3 – 1
Lusitânia
Lusitânia
9/9/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundComplexo Desportivo Cf União - Campo 1 (Camacha (Ilha da Madeira))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

U. Madeira53%
×Draw24%
Lusitânia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Madeira
1.73
Lusitânia
1.05

U. Madeira creates 65% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

U. Madeira
1.20
Lusitânia
0.50

allows per match

U. Madeira
1.60
Lusitânia
2.25

finishing

U. Madeira+0.00on par
Lusitânia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Madeira ↓

Lusitânia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

U. Madeira or draw
77%
U. Madeira or Lusitânia
76%
Draw or Lusitânia
47%

Winning margin

U. Madeira wins by 2+
29%
Lusitânia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

U. Madeira 1+ goals
82%
U. Madeira 2+ goals
52%
U. Madeira 3+ goals
25%
Lusitânia 1+ goals
65%
Lusitânia 2+ goals
28%
Lusitânia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

U. Madeira (draw refunded)
70%
Lusitânia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Madeira at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Lusitânia away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Madeira attack 1.20 + Lusitânia defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.73

Lusitânia attack 0.50 + U. Madeira defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U. Madeira scores more
53%
level
24%
Lusitânia scores more
23%

U. Madeira at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "U. Madeira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: U. Madeira 3–1 Lusitânia

U. Madeira beat Lusitânia 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo Cf União - Campo 1 (Camacha (Ilha da Madeira)).