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U. Madeira vs Guimaraes — Taça de Portugal 2018

U. Madeira
U. Madeira
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
11/25/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Centro Desportivo da Madeira (Ribeira Brava (Madeira))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

U. Madeira23%
×Draw22%
Guimaraes54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Madeira
1.19
Guimaraes
1.93

Guimaraes creates 62% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

U. Madeira
1.20
Guimaraes
2.25

allows per match

U. Madeira
1.60
Guimaraes
1.17

finishing

U. Madeira+0.00on par
Guimaraes+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Madeira ↓

Guimaraes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

U. Madeira or draw
46%
U. Madeira or Guimaraes
78%
Draw or Guimaraes
77%

Winning margin

U. Madeira wins by 2+
9%
Guimaraes wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

U. Madeira 1+ goals
70%
U. Madeira 2+ goals
33%
U. Madeira 3+ goals
12%
Guimaraes 1+ goals
85%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
57%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

U. Madeira (draw refunded)
30%
Guimaraes (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Madeira at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Madeira attack 1.20 + Guimaraes defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Guimaraes attack 2.25 + U. Madeira defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

U. Madeira scores more
23%
level
22%
Guimaraes scores more
54%

Guimaraes at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: U. Madeira 0–2 Guimaraes

Guimaraes beat U. Madeira 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio do Centro Desportivo da Madeira (Ribeira Brava (Madeira)).