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U. de Deportes W vs Carlos Mannucci W — Liga Women 2026

U. de Deportes W
U. de Deportes W
Preview
20:15
Carlos Mannucci W
Carlos Mannucci W
7/22/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Clausura - 1
99%
U. de Deportes W
model favours
99%1%0%
4–0
likely score
84%
over 2.5 goals
9%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

U. de Deportes W99%
×Draw1%
Carlos Mannucci W0%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. de Deportes W
4.87
Carlos Mannucci W
0.09

U. de Deportes W creates 5311% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

U. de Deportes W
5.33
Carlos Mannucci W
0.00

allows per match

U. de Deportes W
0.17
Carlos Mannucci W
4.40

finishing

U. de Deportes W+0.00on par
Carlos Mannucci W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%No
  • No91
  • Yes9

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. de Deportes W ↓

Carlos Mannucci W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–10%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–017%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–021%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (21%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
65%35%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

U. de Deportes W or draw
100%
U. de Deportes W or Carlos Mannucci W
99%
Draw or Carlos Mannucci W
1%

Winning margin

U. de Deportes W wins by 2+
93%
Carlos Mannucci W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

U. de Deportes W 1+ goals
99%
U. de Deportes W 2+ goals
94%
U. de Deportes W 3+ goals
83%
Carlos Mannucci W 1+ goals
9%
Carlos Mannucci W 2+ goals
0%
Carlos Mannucci W 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

U. de Deportes W (draw refunded)
100%
Carlos Mannucci W (draw refunded)
0%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
8%
Both score & under 3
0%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. de Deportes W at home — creates 5.33, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

Carlos Mannucci W away — creates 0.00, concedes 4.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. de Deportes W attack 5.33 + Carlos Mannucci W defence 4.40 → ÷2 → 4.87

Carlos Mannucci W attack 0.00 + U. de Deportes W defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 99%?"

U. de Deportes W scores more
99%
level
1%
Carlos Mannucci W scores more
0%

U. de Deportes W at 99% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 99% does not mean "U. de Deportes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
DWLWW
W
LDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U. de Deportes W face Carlos Mannucci W (Liga Women)

Liga Women returns with U. de Deportes W hosting Carlos Mannucci W. Match starts July 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.