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Carlos Mannucci W vs U. de Deportes W — Liga Women 2026

Carlos Mannucci W
Carlos Mannucci W
FT
0 – 16
HT: 0 – 8
U. de Deportes W
U. de Deportes W
3/14/2026Liga WomenLiga Women · Apertura - 1Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Carlos Mannucci W4%
×Draw7%
U. de Deportes W89%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Mannucci W
0.83
U. de Deportes W
4.10

U. de Deportes W creates 394% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Carlos Mannucci W
0.80
U. de Deportes W
4.00

allows per match

Carlos Mannucci W
4.20
U. de Deportes W
0.86

finishing

Carlos Mannucci W+0.00on par
U. de Deportes W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Mannucci W ↓

U. de Deportes W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–27%
0–39%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (10%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Carlos Mannucci W or draw
11%
Carlos Mannucci W or U. de Deportes W
93%
Draw or U. de Deportes W
96%

Winning margin

Carlos Mannucci W wins by 2+
1%
U. de Deportes W wins by 2+
76%

Team goals

Carlos Mannucci W 1+ goals
56%
Carlos Mannucci W 2+ goals
20%
Carlos Mannucci W 3+ goals
5%
U. de Deportes W 1+ goals
98%
U. de Deportes W 2+ goals
90%
U. de Deportes W 3+ goals
75%

Draw no bet

Carlos Mannucci W (draw refunded)
4%
U. de Deportes W (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Mannucci W at home — creates 0.80, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

U. de Deportes W away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Mannucci W attack 0.80 + U. de Deportes W defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

U. de Deportes W attack 4.00 + Carlos Mannucci W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 4.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Carlos Mannucci W scores more
4%
level
7%
U. de Deportes W scores more
89%

U. de Deportes W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "U. de Deportes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Women: Carlos Mannucci W 0–16 U. de Deportes W

U. de Deportes W beat Carlos Mannucci W 16-0 in Liga Women on March 14, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.