U Craiova 1948 1–1 Viitorul Şelimbăr

U Craiova 1948

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Viitorul Şelimbăr

8/23/2024

Liga II · Round 4Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

U Craiova 194846%

×Draw28%

Viitorul Şelimbăr26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U Craiova 1948Expected goals in this matchViitorul Şelimbăr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.91

U Craiova 1948

1.32

Viitorul Şelimbăr

0.91

U Craiova 1948 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 69 away

1.42

creates per match

0.96

0.85

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

U Craiova 1948

1.42

Viitorul Şelimbăr

0.96

allows per match

U Craiova 1948

0.85

Viitorul Şelimbăr

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Viitorul Şelimbăr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

Viitorul Şelimbăr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw

74%

U Craiova 1948 or Viitorul Şelimbăr

72%

Draw or Viitorul Şelimbăr

54%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

21%

Viitorul Şelimbăr wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

73%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

38%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

15%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 1+ goals

60%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 2+ goals

23%

Viitorul Şelimbăr 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

64%

Viitorul Şelimbăr (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Viitorul Şelimbăr away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.42 + Viitorul Şelimbăr defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Viitorul Şelimbăr attack 0.96 + U Craiova 1948 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more

46%

level

28%

Viitorul Şelimbăr scores more

26%

U Craiova 1948 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: U Craiova 1948 vs Viitorul Şelimbăr

U Craiova 1948 and Viitorul Şelimbăr drew 1-1 in Liga II on August 23, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.

U Craiova 1948 vs Viitorul Şelimbăr — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: U Craiova 1948 vs Viitorul Şelimbăr