U Craiova 1948 2–0 Unirea Ungheni: Result & Stats

U Craiova 1948

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Unirea Ungheni

9/12/2024

Liga II · Round 6Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

U Craiova 194854%

×Draw26%

Unirea Ungheni20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U Craiova 1948Expected goals in this matchUnirea Ungheni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.81

U Craiova 1948

1.52

Unirea Ungheni

0.81

U Craiova 1948 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

1.42

creates per match

0.77

0.85

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

U Craiova 1948

1.42

Unirea Ungheni

0.77

allows per match

U Craiova 1948

0.85

Unirea Ungheni

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Unirea Ungheni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

Unirea Ungheni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw

80%

U Craiova 1948 or Unirea Ungheni

74%

Draw or Unirea Ungheni

46%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

28%

Unirea Ungheni wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

78%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

45%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

20%

Unirea Ungheni 1+ goals

56%

Unirea Ungheni 2+ goals

19%

Unirea Ungheni 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

73%

Unirea Ungheni (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Unirea Ungheni away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.42 + Unirea Ungheni defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Unirea Ungheni attack 0.77 + U Craiova 1948 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more

54%

level

26%

Unirea Ungheni scores more

20%

U Craiova 1948 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: U Craiova 1948 2–0 Unirea Ungheni

U Craiova 1948 beat Unirea Ungheni 2-0 in Liga II on September 12, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.

U Craiova 1948 vs Unirea Ungheni — Liga II 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Liga II: U Craiova 1948 2–0 Unirea Ungheni