U Craiova 1948 4–1 Ripensia Timisoara

U Craiova 1948

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Ripensia Timisoara

9/9/2020

Liga II · Round 1Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

U Craiova 194849%

×Draw27%

Ripensia Timisoara24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U Craiova 1948Expected goals in this matchRipensia Timisoara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.94

U Craiova 1948

1.46

Ripensia Timisoara

0.94

U Craiova 1948 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 70 away

1.42

creates per match

1.03

0.85

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

U Craiova 1948

1.42

Ripensia Timisoara

1.03

allows per match

U Craiova 1948

0.85

Ripensia Timisoara

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Ripensia Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

Ripensia Timisoara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw

76%

U Craiova 1948 or Ripensia Timisoara

73%

Draw or Ripensia Timisoara

51%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

24%

Ripensia Timisoara wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

77%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

43%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

18%

Ripensia Timisoara 1+ goals

61%

Ripensia Timisoara 2+ goals

24%

Ripensia Timisoara 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

67%

Ripensia Timisoara (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Ripensia Timisoara away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.42 + Ripensia Timisoara defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ripensia Timisoara attack 1.03 + U Craiova 1948 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more

49%

level

27%

Ripensia Timisoara scores more

24%

U Craiova 1948 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff