U Craiova 1948 vs Farul Constanta — Liga II 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
U Craiova 194849%
Farul Constanta24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
U Craiova 1948 creates 56% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 45 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
U Craiova 1948 ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches
Farul Constanta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
U Craiova 1948 attack 1.42 + Farul Constanta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42
Farul Constanta attack 0.96 + U Craiova 1948 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
U Craiova 1948 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
U Craiova 1948 host Farul Constanta on Tuesday, 23 March 2021 at 17:30. The match is part of the Liga II 2018/2019 season.
Liga II: U Craiova 1948 0–0 Farul Constanta
U Craiova 1948 and Farul Constanta drew 0-0 in Liga II on March 23, 2021.
The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.