Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Farul Constanta vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2018

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
1/26/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 23Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Farul Constanta47%
×Draw26%
U Craiova 194827%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.45
U Craiova 1948
1.03

Farul Constanta creates 41% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 59 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.59
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.04
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
73%
Farul Constanta or U Craiova 1948
74%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
53%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
23%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
77%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
42%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
18%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
64%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
28%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
64%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.04 · 100 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.59 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + Farul Constanta defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
47%
level
26%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
27%

Farul Constanta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Farul Constanta 1–0 U Craiova 1948

Farul Constanta beat U Craiova 1948 1-0 in Liga I on January 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Central in Ovidiu.