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U Craiova 1948 vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ — Liga II 2018

U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
11/2/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 12Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

U Craiova 194852%
×Draw25%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U Craiova 1948
1.60
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
0.99

U Craiova 1948 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 42 away

creates per match

U Craiova 1948
1.42
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.12

allows per match

U Craiova 1948
0.85
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.79

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw
77%
U Craiova 1948 or Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
75%
Draw or Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
48%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
27%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
80%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
47%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
22%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 1+ goals
63%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 2+ goals
26%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
69%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.42 + Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ attack 1.12 + U Craiova 1948 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more
52%
level
25%
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ scores more
23%

U Craiova 1948 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: U Craiova 1948 2–4 Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ

Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ beat U Craiova 1948 4-2 in Liga II on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.