U Craiova 1948 0–0 Aerostar Bacau: Result & Stats

U Craiova 1948

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aerostar Bacau

11/3/2020

Liga II · Round 10Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

U Craiova 194859%

×Draw23%

Aerostar Bacau19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U Craiova 1948Expected goals in this matchAerostar Bacau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.91

U Craiova 1948

1.82

Aerostar Bacau

0.91

U Craiova 1948 creates 100% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 31 away

1.42

creates per match

0.97

0.85

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

U Craiova 1948

1.42

Aerostar Bacau

0.97

allows per match

U Craiova 1948

0.85

Aerostar Bacau

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

Aerostar Bacau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw

81%

U Craiova 1948 or Aerostar Bacau

77%

Draw or Aerostar Bacau

41%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+

34%

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals

84%

U Craiova 1948 2+ goals

54%

U Craiova 1948 3+ goals

27%

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals

60%

Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals

23%

Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)

76%

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.42 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.82

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + U Craiova 1948 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more

59%

level

23%

Aerostar Bacau scores more

19%

U Craiova 1948 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff