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U Craiova 1948 vs ACS Sirineasa — Liga II 2018

U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
CANC
09:00
ACS Sirineasa
ACS Sirineasa
11/23/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 14Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

U Craiova 194849%
×Draw26%
ACS Sirineasa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U Craiova 1948
1.49
ACS Sirineasa
0.98

U Craiova 1948 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 84 away

creates per match

U Craiova 1948
1.42
ACS Sirineasa
1.11

allows per match

U Craiova 1948
0.85
ACS Sirineasa
1.56

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par
ACS Sirineasa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

ACS Sirineasa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw
75%
U Craiova 1948 or ACS Sirineasa
74%
Draw or ACS Sirineasa
51%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
25%
ACS Sirineasa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
77%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
44%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
19%
ACS Sirineasa 1+ goals
62%
ACS Sirineasa 2+ goals
26%
ACS Sirineasa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
66%
ACS Sirineasa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

ACS Sirineasa away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.42 + ACS Sirineasa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.49

ACS Sirineasa attack 1.11 + U Craiova 1948 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more
49%
level
26%
ACS Sirineasa scores more
25%

U Craiova 1948 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U Craiova 1948 vs ACS Sirineasa — Match Preview

U Craiova 1948 face ACS Sirineasa on November 23, 2024 in this Liga II fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

U Craiova 1948 host ACS Sirineasa at Complex Sportiv Craiova.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.