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U. Catolica vs O'Higgins — Primera División 2018

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
O'Higgins
O'Higgins
B. Rabello 47'
L. Pavez 35'
11/2/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 26Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

U. Catolica49%
×Draw25%
O'Higgins26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.58
O'Higgins
1.08

U. Catolica creates 46% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 114 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.80
O'Higgins
1.21

allows per match

U. Catolica
0.96
O'Higgins
1.37

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par
O'Higgins+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

O'Higgins →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
74%
U. Catolica or O'Higgins
75%
Draw or O'Higgins
51%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
25%
O'Higgins wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
79%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
47%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
21%
O'Higgins 1+ goals
66%
O'Higgins 2+ goals
29%
O'Higgins 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
65%
O'Higgins (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

O'Higgins away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.80 + O'Higgins defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

O'Higgins attack 1.21 + U. Catolica defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

U. Catolica scores more
49%
level
25%
O'Higgins scores more
26%

U. Catolica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
B. RabelloO'HigginsO'Higgins · M
8.2

Match Events

25'
Agustín Farías
27'
Juan Leiva
35'
L. Pavez↳ M. Romero
37'
Alan Robledo
46'
A. Canales← N. I. Letelier Garcia
47'
B. Rabello
53'
Felipe Ogaz← J. Leiva
58'
I. Perez← A. Farias
58'
D. Corral← C. Montes
58'
J. Rossel← L. Romero
66'
F. Faundez← F. Gonzalez
73'
R. Godoy← M. Romero
76'
Ignacio Pérez
86'
V. Carcamo← E. Bello

Possession

56%U.

Shots

14U.

Pass accuracy

52%U.

Statistics

U.O'Higgins
Overview
56%Possession44%
14Total Shots9
8Corners2
9Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots9
3On Target3
6Off Target3
5Blocked3
10Inside Box3
4Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
407Total Passes318
309Accurate Passes223
76%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: U. Catolica vs O'Higgins

O'Higgins beat U. Catolica 2-0 in Primera División on November 2, 2025.

Goals: L. Pavez (35'), B. Rabello (47').

U. Catolica controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Santiago de Chile.