U. Catolica 1–0 Curico Unido: Result & Stats

U. Catolica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Curico Unido

F. Zampedri 81'

2/20/2022

Primera División · Round 3Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

U. Catolica53%

×Draw24%

Curico Unido23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. CatolicaExpected goals in this matchCurico Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.00

U. Catolica

1.67

Curico Unido

1.00

U. Catolica creates 67% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 79 away

1.80

creates per match

1.05

0.96

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

U. Catolica

1.80

Curico Unido

1.05

allows per match

U. Catolica

0.96

Curico Unido

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Curico Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw

77%

U. Catolica or Curico Unido

76%

Draw or Curico Unido

47%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+

29%

Curico Unido wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals

81%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

50%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

23%

Curico Unido 1+ goals

63%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

26%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

70%

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.54 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.80 + Curico Unido defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.67

Curico Unido attack 1.05 + U. Catolica defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U. Catolica scores more

53%

level

24%

Curico Unido scores more

23%

U. Catolica at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

A. Parot

U. Catolica · D

7.3

Match Events

16'

29'

43'

46'

59'

65'

D. Buonanotte← M. Nuñez

80'

F. Gutiérrez← J. Leiva

80'

Y. Asad← G. Tapia

81'

F. Zampedri↳ D. Buonanotte

84'

J. Gonzalez← F. Ortiz

86'

86'

86'

90+4'

90+9'

90+8'

Diego UrzúaCard upgrade

90+3'

C. Montes← Y. Asad

90'

M. Cortés← A. Nadruz

90+2'

D. Urzúa← Y. Leiva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.Curico

Overview

54%Possession46%

23Total Shots9

8Corners5

11Fouls10

Shots

23Total Shots9

5On Target2

13Off Target6

5Blocked1

18Inside Box3

5Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

323Total Passes285

265Accurate Passes205

82%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

2Offsides2