U. Catolica 2–0 Concepción: Result & Stats

U. Catolica

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Concepción

J. Giani 71'

F. Zampedri 51'

2/8/2026

Primera División · Round 2Claro Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

U. Catolica58%

×Draw24%

Concepción18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. CatolicaExpected goals in this matchConcepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.79

U. Catolica

1.65

Concepción

0.79

U. Catolica creates 109% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 8 away

1.80

creates per match

0.63

0.96

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

U. Catolica

1.80

Concepción

0.63

allows per match

U. Catolica

0.96

Concepción

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw

82%

U. Catolica or Concepción

76%

Draw or Concepción

42%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+

32%

Concepción wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals

81%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

49%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

23%

Concepción 1+ goals

55%

Concepción 2+ goals

19%

Concepción 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

76%

Concepción (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

Concepción away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.80 + Concepción defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Concepción attack 0.63 + U. Catolica defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

U. Catolica scores more

58%

level

24%

Concepción scores more

18%

U. Catolica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Palavecino

U. Catolica · M

8.2

Match Events

39'

Eugenio Mena

46'

J. A. Martinez← E. Mena

51'

F. Zampedri↳ M. Palavecino

57'

A. Gillard← A. Jara

57'

N. Sepulveda← M. Sandoval

71'

J. Giani↳ F. Zampedri

73'

Clemente Montes

75'

A. Caceres← B. Vejar

75'

L. Romero← M. Vera

75'

C. Escobar← E. Espinoza

79'

Fausto Grillo

82'

J. Valencia← M. Palavecino

82'

N. L’Huillier← J. Giani

87'

Fernando Zampedri

90'

A. Farias← G. Medel

90+4'

D. Valencia← C. Cuevas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.Concepción

Overview

47%Possession53%

13Total Shots15

3Corners8

18Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots15

6On Target3

5Off Target8

2Blocked4

10Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

392Total Passes430

333Accurate Passes376

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2