Tzofi Haifa 1–0 Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

Tzofi Haifa

1 – 0

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

9/20/2022

State Cup · 6th RoundKiryat Haim Beit Nagler Mizrahi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tzofi Haifa40%

×Draw20%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tzofi HaifaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Neve Sha'anan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

Tzofi Haifa

2.29

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

2.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

3.25

creates per match

2.33

2.25

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Tzofi Haifa

3.25

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

2.33

allows per match

Tzofi Haifa

2.25

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tzofi Haifa+0.00on par

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzofi Haifa ↓

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Tzofi Haifa or draw

60%

Tzofi Haifa or Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

80%

Draw or Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

60%

Winning margin

Tzofi Haifa wins by 2+

23%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Tzofi Haifa 1+ goals

90%

Tzofi Haifa 2+ goals

66%

Tzofi Haifa 3+ goals

40%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1+ goals

90%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 2+ goals

66%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Tzofi Haifa (draw refunded)

50%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tzofi Haifa at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tzofi Haifa attack 3.25 + Maccabi Neve Sha'anan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan attack 2.33 + Tzofi Haifa defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tzofi Haifa scores more

40%

level

20%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan scores more

40%

Tzofi Haifa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tzofi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff