Tzofi Haifa 1–5 Ihud Bnei Baka: Result & Stats

Tzofi Haifa

1 – 5

Ihud Bnei Baka

11/2/2024

State Cup · 2nd Round (Liga Bet)Hadera Synthetic Training Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tzofi Haifa53%

×Draw18%

Ihud Bnei Baka30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tzofi HaifaExpected goals in this matchIhud Bnei Baka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.13

2.38

Tzofi Haifa

3.13

Ihud Bnei Baka

2.38

Tzofi Haifa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

3.25

creates per match

2.50

2.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Tzofi Haifa

3.25

Ihud Bnei Baka

2.50

allows per match

Tzofi Haifa

2.25

Ihud Bnei Baka

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tzofi Haifa+0.00on par

Ihud Bnei Baka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over91
Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes87
No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzofi Haifa ↓

Ihud Bnei Baka →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–33%

1–42%

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4–02%

4–14%

4–25%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

91%9%3.5

79%21%4.5

62%38%

Double chance

Tzofi Haifa or draw

70%

Tzofi Haifa or Ihud Bnei Baka

82%

Draw or Ihud Bnei Baka

47%

Winning margin

Tzofi Haifa wins by 2+

35%

Ihud Bnei Baka wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tzofi Haifa 1+ goals

95%

Tzofi Haifa 2+ goals

81%

Tzofi Haifa 3+ goals

59%

Ihud Bnei Baka 1+ goals

91%

Ihud Bnei Baka 2+ goals

68%

Ihud Bnei Baka 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Tzofi Haifa (draw refunded)

64%

Ihud Bnei Baka (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

83%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tzofi Haifa at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Ihud Bnei Baka away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tzofi Haifa attack 3.25 + Ihud Bnei Baka defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Ihud Bnei Baka attack 2.50 + Tzofi Haifa defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tzofi Haifa scores more

53%

level

18%

Ihud Bnei Baka scores more

30%

Tzofi Haifa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tzofi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff