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Tzofi Haifa vs FC Tirat HaCarmel — State Cup 2019

Tzofi Haifa
Tzofi Haifa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
FC Tirat HaCarmel
FC Tirat HaCarmel
12/26/2023State CupState Cup · 6th RoundAthos Haifa Lot 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tzofi Haifa20%
×Draw16%
FC Tirat HaCarmel63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tzofi Haifa
1.79
FC Tirat HaCarmel
3.13

FC Tirat HaCarmel creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tzofi Haifa
3.25
FC Tirat HaCarmel
4.00

allows per match

Tzofi Haifa
2.25
FC Tirat HaCarmel
0.33

finishing

Tzofi Haifa+0.00on par
FC Tirat HaCarmel+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzofi Haifa ↓

FC Tirat HaCarmel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Tzofi Haifa or draw
37%
Tzofi Haifa or FC Tirat HaCarmel
84%
Draw or FC Tirat HaCarmel
80%

Winning margin

Tzofi Haifa wins by 2+
9%
FC Tirat HaCarmel wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Tzofi Haifa 1+ goals
83%
Tzofi Haifa 2+ goals
53%
Tzofi Haifa 3+ goals
26%
FC Tirat HaCarmel 1+ goals
95%
FC Tirat HaCarmel 2+ goals
81%
FC Tirat HaCarmel 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Tzofi Haifa (draw refunded)
24%
FC Tirat HaCarmel (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tzofi Haifa at home — creates 3.25, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

FC Tirat HaCarmel away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tzofi Haifa attack 3.25 + FC Tirat HaCarmel defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

FC Tirat HaCarmel attack 4.00 + Tzofi Haifa defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tzofi Haifa scores more
20%
level
16%
FC Tirat HaCarmel scores more
63%

FC Tirat HaCarmel at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Tirat HaCarmel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tzofi Haifa vs FC Tirat HaCarmel

FC Tirat HaCarmel beat Tzofi Haifa 3-1 in State Cup on December 26, 2023.

The match was played at Athos Haifa Lot 1 in Haifa.