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Tzeirey Tira vs Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT — State Cup 2019

Tzeirey Tira
Tzeirey Tira
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
12/25/2023State CupState Cup · 3rd Round (Liga Bet)Tira Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tzeirey Tira60%
×Draw19%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tzeirey Tira
2.33
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
1.29

Tzeirey Tira creates 81% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tzeirey Tira
1.00
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
1.33

allows per match

Tzeirey Tira
1.25
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
3.67

finishing

Tzeirey Tira+0.00on par
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirey Tira ↓

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tzeirey Tira or draw
80%
Tzeirey Tira or Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
81%
Draw or Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT
40%

Winning margin

Tzeirey Tira wins by 2+
38%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tzeirey Tira 1+ goals
90%
Tzeirey Tira 2+ goals
67%
Tzeirey Tira 3+ goals
41%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 1+ goals
72%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 2+ goals
37%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tzeirey Tira (draw refunded)
75%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tzeirey Tira at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirey Tira attack 1.00 + Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT attack 1.33 + Tzeirey Tira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tzeirey Tira scores more
60%
level
19%
Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT scores more
20%

Tzeirey Tira at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tzeirey Tira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tzeirey Tira vs Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

Tzeirey Tira and Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT drew 2-2 in State Cup on December 25, 2023.

The match was played at Tira Municipal Stadium in Tira.