Tzeirey Tira 3–0 Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

Tzeirey Tira

3 – 0

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

9/8/2023

State Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Tira Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tzeirey Tira70%

×Draw20%

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tzeirey TiraExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.63

Tzeirey Tira

2.00

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

0.63

Tzeirey Tira creates 217% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

0.00

1.25

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Tzeirey Tira

1.00

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

0.00

allows per match

Tzeirey Tira

1.25

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tzeirey Tira+0.00on par

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirey Tira ↓

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa →

0–07%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tzeirey Tira or draw

89%

Tzeirey Tira or Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

80%

Draw or Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

30%

Winning margin

Tzeirey Tira wins by 2+

44%

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa wins by 2+

Team goals

Tzeirey Tira 1+ goals

86%

Tzeirey Tira 2+ goals

59%

Tzeirey Tira 3+ goals

32%

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 1+ goals

47%

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 2+ goals

13%

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Tzeirey Tira (draw refunded)

87%

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tzeirey Tira at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirey Tira attack 1.00 + Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa attack 0.00 + Tzeirey Tira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Tzeirey Tira scores more

70%

level

20%

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa scores more

11%

Tzeirey Tira at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Tzeirey Tira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff