Tzeirey Tira 0–2 Beitar Kfar Saba: Result & Stats

Tzeirey Tira

0 – 2

Beitar Kfar Saba

10/7/2019

State Cup · 6th RoundKfar-Saba Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tzeirey Tira8%

×Draw19%

Beitar Kfar Saba72%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tzeirey TiraExpected goals in this matchBeitar Kfar Saba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.50

1.96

Tzeirey Tira

0.50

Beitar Kfar Saba

1.96

Beitar Kfar Saba creates 292% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

2.67

1.25

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Tzeirey Tira

1.00

Beitar Kfar Saba

2.67

allows per match

Tzeirey Tira

1.25

Beitar Kfar Saba

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tzeirey Tira+0.00on par

Beitar Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirey Tira ↓

Beitar Kfar Saba →

0–09%

0–117%

0–216%

0–311%

0–45%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2–01%

2–12%

2–22%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Tzeirey Tira or draw

28%

Tzeirey Tira or Beitar Kfar Saba

81%

Draw or Beitar Kfar Saba

92%

Winning margin

Tzeirey Tira wins by 2+

Beitar Kfar Saba wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Tzeirey Tira 1+ goals

39%

Tzeirey Tira 2+ goals

Tzeirey Tira 3+ goals

Beitar Kfar Saba 1+ goals

86%

Beitar Kfar Saba 2+ goals

58%

Beitar Kfar Saba 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Tzeirey Tira (draw refunded)

11%

Beitar Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tzeirey Tira at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Beitar Kfar Saba away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirey Tira attack 1.00 + Beitar Kfar Saba defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Beitar Kfar Saba attack 2.67 + Tzeirey Tira defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Tzeirey Tira scores more

level

19%

Beitar Kfar Saba scores more

72%

Beitar Kfar Saba at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Beitar Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff