Tzeirey Taibe 0–2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Tzeirey Taibe

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Y. Lugasi 90'

G. Mizrachi 76'

12/17/2021

State Cup · 8th RoundWahib Jabara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tzeirey Taibe42%

×Draw23%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tzeirey TaibeExpected goals in this matchIroni Kiryat Shmona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.54

Tzeirey Taibe

1.71

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.54

Tzeirey Taibe creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.25

creates per match

1.83

1.25

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Tzeirey Taibe

2.25

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.83

allows per match

Tzeirey Taibe

1.25

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tzeirey Taibe+0.00on par

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirey Taibe ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Tzeirey Taibe or draw

65%

Tzeirey Taibe or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

77%

Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

58%

Winning margin

Tzeirey Taibe wins by 2+

22%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tzeirey Taibe 1+ goals

82%

Tzeirey Taibe 2+ goals

51%

Tzeirey Taibe 3+ goals

24%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

79%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

45%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Tzeirey Taibe (draw refunded)

55%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tzeirey Taibe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirey Taibe attack 2.25 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.83 + Tzeirey Taibe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tzeirey Taibe scores more

42%

level

23%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

35%

Tzeirey Taibe at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tzeirey Taibe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Nidam← O. Bic

46'

I. Shviro← G. Ben Lulu

57'

Y. Lugasi← A. Shirdatzki

70'

S. Ben Aharon← A. Azam

76'

G. Mizrachi

80'

R. Kehat← M. Ferrier

84'

S. Milošević← S. Bar On

90'

Y. Lugasi

Tzeirey

Ironi

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: W. Masarwa

70'▲S. Ben Aharon←▼A. Azam

Tzeirey Taibe substitutes

16Aharon1Drori14Mantzur21Kader10Yusuf55Forma99Rian23Maree

Manager: S. Drapić

46'▲N. Nidam←▼O. Bic

46'▲I. Shviro←▼G. Ben Lulu

57'▲Y. Lugasi←▼A. Shirdatzki

80'▲R. Kehat←▼M. Ferrier

84'▲S. Milošević←▼S. Bar On

Ironi Kiryat Shmona substitutes

6Nidam30Shviro8Lugasi19Kehat9Milošević4Shabat20Drori24Hija29Bartkus

Match Recap: Tzeirey Taibe vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Tzeirey Taibe 2-0 in State Cup on December 17, 2021.

Goals: G. Mizrachi (76'), Y. Lugasi (90').

The match was played at Wahib Jabara Stadium in Taibe.

Tzeirey Taibe vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — State Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tzeirey Taibe vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona