Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tzeirey Taibe vs Beitar Kfar Saba — State Cup 2019

Tzeirey Taibe
Tzeirey Taibe
Pens
2 – 2
Beitar Kfar Saba
Beitar Kfar Saba
9/24/2019State CupState Cup · 3rd RoundWahib Jabara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tzeirey Taibe22%
×Draw22%
Beitar Kfar Saba56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tzeirey Taibe
1.13
Beitar Kfar Saba
1.96

Beitar Kfar Saba creates 73% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tzeirey Taibe
2.25
Beitar Kfar Saba
2.67

allows per match

Tzeirey Taibe
1.25
Beitar Kfar Saba
0.00

finishing

Tzeirey Taibe+0.00on par
Beitar Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirey Taibe ↓

Beitar Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Tzeirey Taibe or draw
44%
Tzeirey Taibe or Beitar Kfar Saba
78%
Draw or Beitar Kfar Saba
78%

Winning margin

Tzeirey Taibe wins by 2+
8%
Beitar Kfar Saba wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Tzeirey Taibe 1+ goals
68%
Tzeirey Taibe 2+ goals
31%
Tzeirey Taibe 3+ goals
11%
Beitar Kfar Saba 1+ goals
86%
Beitar Kfar Saba 2+ goals
58%
Beitar Kfar Saba 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tzeirey Taibe (draw refunded)
28%
Beitar Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tzeirey Taibe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Beitar Kfar Saba away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirey Taibe attack 2.25 + Beitar Kfar Saba defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Beitar Kfar Saba attack 2.67 + Tzeirey Taibe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tzeirey Taibe scores more
22%
level
22%
Beitar Kfar Saba scores more
56%

Beitar Kfar Saba at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Beitar Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tzeirey Taibe vs Beitar Kfar Saba

Tzeirey Taibe and Beitar Kfar Saba drew 2-2 in State Cup on September 24, 2019.

The match was played at Wahib Jabara Stadium in Taibe.