Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 0–4 Ironi Nesher: Result & Stats

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna

0 – 4

Ironi Nesher

8/30/2024

State Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Nof HaGalil Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna22%

×Draw23%

Ironi Nesher55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tzeirei Kafr KannaExpected goals in this matchIroni Nesher

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.83

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna

1.08

Ironi Nesher

1.83

Ironi Nesher creates 69% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna

1.17

Ironi Nesher

2.00

allows per match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna

1.67

Ironi Nesher

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna+0.00on par

Ironi Nesher+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna ↓

Ironi Nesher →

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna or draw

45%

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna or Ironi Nesher

77%

Draw or Ironi Nesher

78%

Winning margin

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna wins by 2+

Ironi Nesher wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 1+ goals

66%

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 2+ goals

29%

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 3+ goals

10%

Ironi Nesher 1+ goals

84%

Ironi Nesher 2+ goals

54%

Ironi Nesher 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna (draw refunded)

29%

Ironi Nesher (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Ironi Nesher away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna attack 1.17 + Ironi Nesher defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Ironi Nesher attack 2.00 + Tzeirei Kafr Kanna defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna scores more

22%

level

23%

Ironi Nesher scores more

55%

Ironi Nesher at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ironi Nesher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff