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Tzeirei Kafr Kanna vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona — State Cup 2019

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna
Tzeirei Kafr Kanna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
2/9/2024State CupState Cup · 8th RoundKfar Kana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna26%
×Draw24%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna
1.17
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.75

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna
1.17
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.83

allows per match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna
1.67
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
1.17

finishing

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna+0.00on par
Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna or draw
49%
Tzeirei Kafr Kanna or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
76%
Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona
74%

Winning margin

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna wins by 2+
10%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 1+ goals
69%
Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 2+ goals
33%
Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 3+ goals
11%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals
83%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals
52%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna (draw refunded)
33%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna attack 1.17 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.83 + Tzeirei Kafr Kanna defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna scores more
26%
level
24%
Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more
51%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tzeirei Kafr Kanna vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Ironi Kiryat Shmona beat Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 2-1 in State Cup on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Kfar Kana Stadium in Kfar Kana.