Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 2–1 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

9/20/2022

State Cup · 6th RoundKfar Kana Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna48%

×Draw21%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tzeirei Kafr KannaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Ironi Karmiel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.64

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna

2.08

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

1.64

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.17

creates per match

1.60

1.67

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna

1.17

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

1.60

allows per match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna

1.67

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna+0.00on par

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna ↓

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna or draw

69%

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna or Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

79%

Draw or Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

52%

Winning margin

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna wins by 2+

28%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 1+ goals

87%

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 2+ goals

61%

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna 3+ goals

34%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1+ goals

81%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 2+ goals

49%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna (draw refunded)

61%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel away — creates 1.60, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna attack 1.17 + Hapoel Ironi Karmiel defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel attack 1.60 + Tzeirei Kafr Kanna defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna scores more

48%

level

21%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel scores more

31%

Tzeirei Kafr Kanna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tzeirei Kafr Kanna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff