Tyumen 0–3 Torpedo Moskva: Result & Stats

Tyumen

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Torpedo Moskva

A. Koryan 67'

I. Manelov 45'

M. Maksimov 18'

10/21/2024

First League · Round 15Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen33%

×Draw29%

Torpedo Moskva38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.15

Tyumen

1.04

Torpedo Moskva

1.15

Torpedo Moskva creates 11% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 104 away

1.04

creates per match

1.22

1.07

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Tyumen

1.04

Torpedo Moskva

1.22

allows per match

Tyumen

1.07

Torpedo Moskva

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

Torpedo Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Torpedo Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

62%

Tyumen or Torpedo Moskva

71%

Draw or Torpedo Moskva

67%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

13%

Torpedo Moskva wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

65%

Tyumen 2+ goals

28%

Tyumen 3+ goals

9%

Torpedo Moskva 1+ goals

68%

Torpedo Moskva 2+ goals

32%

Torpedo Moskva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

46%

Torpedo Moskva (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

Torpedo Moskva away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Torpedo Moskva defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Torpedo Moskva attack 1.22 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tyumen scores more

33%

level

29%

Torpedo Moskva scores more

38%

Torpedo Moskva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Torpedo Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

37'

45'

46'

55'

61'

O. Kenfack← A. Kulishev

61'

D. Tkachuk← A. Savinov

61'

I. Mokaev← A. Maryanov

63'

A. Koryan← I. Gorbunov

63'

A. Chupaev← M. Maksimov

67'

A. Koryan

72'

D. Talalay← A. Korotaev

72'

I. Petukhov← D. Klenkin

78'

R. Chervyakov← I. Manelov

84'

R. Baytukov← B. Roganović

90'

Mamadou Harouna Camara

Statistics

TyumenTorpedo

Discipline

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0