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Tyumen vs Tambov — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tambov
Tambov
8/26/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 8Stadion Geolog (Tyumen')

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tyumen31%
×Draw30%
Tambov39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
0.97
Tambov
1.14

Tambov creates 18% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.04
Tambov
1.20

allows per match

Tyumen
1.07
Tambov
0.90

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
61%
Tyumen or Tambov
70%
Draw or Tambov
69%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
11%
Tambov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
62%
Tyumen 2+ goals
25%
Tyumen 3+ goals
7%
Tambov 1+ goals
68%
Tambov 2+ goals
32%
Tambov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
44%
Tambov (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

Tambov away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Tambov defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Tambov attack 1.20 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tyumen scores more
31%
level
30%
Tambov scores more
39%

Tambov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Tyumen 1–3 Tambov

Tambov beat Tyumen 3-1 in First League on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Geolog (Tyumen').