Tyumen 0–2 Shinnik Yaroslavl: Result & Stats

Tyumen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

4/6/2024

First League · Round 26Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen42%

×Draw28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.03

Tyumen

1.26

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.03

Tyumen creates 22% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 123 away

1.04

creates per match

0.99

1.07

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Tyumen

1.04

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Tyumen

1.07

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

70%

Tyumen or Shinnik Yaroslavl

72%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

58%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

19%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

72%

Tyumen 2+ goals

36%

Tyumen 3+ goals

13%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

64%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

58%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tyumen scores more

42%

level

28%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

30%

Tyumen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff