Tyumen 1–2 Rodina Moskva: Result & Stats

Tyumen

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rodina Moskva

A. Kulishev 22' (pen)

A. Kontsevoy 74'

Y. Reyna 49'

9/21/2024

First League · Round 11Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen31%

×Draw29%

Rodina Moskva41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchRodina Moskva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.20

Tyumen

1.00

Rodina Moskva

1.20

Rodina Moskva creates 20% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

1.04

creates per match

1.32

1.07

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Tyumen

1.04

Rodina Moskva

1.32

allows per match

Tyumen

1.07

Rodina Moskva

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Rodina Moskva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

59%

Tyumen or Rodina Moskva

71%

Draw or Rodina Moskva

69%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

11%

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

63%

Tyumen 2+ goals

26%

Tyumen 3+ goals

8%

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

70%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

34%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

43%

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tyumen scores more

31%

level

29%

Rodina Moskva scores more

41%

Rodina Moskva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

A. KulishevPenalty

46'

A. Savinov← A. Korotaev

49'

Y. Reyna

51'

David Shavlokhov

63'

D. Tkachuk← A. Maryanov

69'

Astemir Gordyushenko

69'

K. Kochiev← M. Križan

69'

D. Shadrintsev← A. Yushin

69'

R. Maltsev← M. Ryadno

73'

D. Kuptsov← D. Karpov

74'

A. Kontsevoy

77'

M. Burlakov← A. Kontsevoy

77'

M. Danilin← Y. Reyna

80'

D. Talalay← A. Kulishev

80'

M. Petrov← D. Klenkin

Statistics

TyumenRodina

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0